Applied papers in public policy.

Abstract

Safer hurricanes and the role of mitigation: Analyzing population growth and damage in coastal counties. The rising cost of hurricanes and other natural hazards has long been a concern to policy makers and insurance industry executives. A heretofore over-looked explanation of rising hurricane damages is offered here---improved hurricane forecasts and more extensive evacuations have made hurricanes less lethal and reduced the full cost of living on hurricane prone coasts, paradoxically increasing damages. A time varying measure of hurricane lethality is estimated for land falling hurricanes in the mainland U.S. between 1940 and 1999, showing the decrease in fatalities over time. Results from this estimation are used to confirm that the reduction in fatalities in coastal counties has played a role in increasing both population and hurricane damages in these areas. The significant role that mitigation can play in reducing damages is also analyzed.

Discount retailers and sales tax collections: Accounting for competitive and spatial aspects. The impact of discount retailers on tax revenues, wages, and locally-owned businesses has been the topic of much recent debate. This study analyzes the effect of three major discount retailers---Wal-Mart, KMart, and Target, on total sales tax collections and regional sales tax pull, incorporating an increasingly popular local revenue option---local option sales taxes. The empirical analysis first tests for the potential endogeneity between location choice and community growth, which could bias estimates of interest. Next, a two-stage, fixed-effects estimation is performed on county and municipal-level panel data for the State of New York. Consistent with previous research, the findings suggest that the presence of a discount retailer is positively related to a municipality's sales tax collections and negatively related to collections of a competing retailer's community. The implication for rural communities and their relative proximity to the big three discount retailers is also analyzed.