Multipolarity and East Asia.

Abstract

The East Asian geographic subsystem was chosen as the region to be analyzed because of the author's belief that changes in the East Asian subsystem since 1945 have always preceded changes in the global international system. Further, most of the essential actors of the future global international system have faced each other directly in the East Asian region since 1945. These include the U.S., the U.S.S.R., China and Japan. A fifth essential actor in the East Asian region is India. A federated Western Europe may become the fifth essential actor in the global political system.

This study was concerned with the use of systems theory as a method both of analyzing past and present international politics and of predicting the future. The analytical model used in this study was based primarily upon that of Richard N. Rosecrance, but with some modifications. The modified model is believed to be suitable for use in analyzing both the global international political system and its regional subsystems.

The various components of the East Asian subsystem were examined, as well as the interaction since 1945 between the subsystem's major actors. Predictions were then made concerning the characteristics and "rules of the game" of the future global international system. Specific predictions were not made for the East Asian subsystem because those for the global international system were believed to also apply to that subsystem.