POLICY NARRATIVES AND CHINESE FOREIGN POLICY MAKING OVER THE DISPUTED DIAOYU ISLANDS: TESTING SYSTEMS THEORY IN CHINA

Abstract

China's foreign policy has been making an assertive turn. Over the disputed Diaoyu Islands against Japan, China adopted the most assertive policy so far in 2010. However, in previous incidents of 1996 and 2004, such assertive policy was not found. What explains China's recent assertive foreign policy?

By integrating the two-level game into David Easton's Systems Theory to explain Chinese foreign policy making, this dissertation expects to generate a theoretical framework that can apply to foreign policy making in an authoritarian context. This dissertation examines China's foreign policy making during three incidents over the Diaoyu Islands against Japan, in 1996, 2004 and 2010. China was reactive and passive in 1996. In 2004 however, China was steadfast, demanding Japan to release arrested Chinese citizens. In 2010, China adopted the most assertive policy among these three against Japan, the "countermeasures", which involved a series of suspensions of bilateral contacts after Japan detained a Chinese fisherman in waters near the disputed Diaoyu Islands.

What explains the variation in Chinese reactions in these three incidents? First of all, the government's actions are responsive to Japan's actions. The stronger Japan's actions are, the stronger the Chinese public's mobilization is, and the more assertive policy the government has to take. This partially explains why the Chinese government adopted the most assertive policy in 2010. I have described in chapter 7 that "jurisdiction" issues involving arrest and trial of Chinese citizens are most concerned by China.

Second, in order to investigate the nuances in Chinese foreign policy making, I employ a narrative analysis approach to compare the policy preferences of the government, intellectuals and the Public Opinion Leaders (POLs) in three incidents. The narrative analysis suggests the development of bottom-up policy actors who function as mediating institutions in Chinese foreign policy making, including the intellectuals and the POLs. The authoritarian government seems to respond to the policy narratives in order to stabilize domestic policy relations, suggesting policy actions that are dramatically different than those employed over the course of history.

This project contributes to extant literature a revised version of Easton's Systems Theory. In addition to previous version of Systems Theory, I add arrows symbolizing the interaction of quelling and appeasing between the government and the public. I also add a "two-level game" arrow denoting the interaction among the Chinese government, the public and Japan. This revised model offers a more robust tool than previous version in capturing the nuanced interactions in Chinese foreign policy making. This research contributes to our knowledge in both International Relations and Public Policy disciplines over the topic of China. Based upon this model, future research can be conducted to explore China's foreign policy making over foreign policy issues, analyzing when China is to become more assertive in its foreign policy. Knowledge generated from this research can also inform the development of mediating institutions and the influence of social media in China's policy making process.