Role of upper-level wind shear on the structure and maintenance of derecho-producing convective systems.

Abstract

To explore the role of upper-level shear in derecho environments, a set of two-dimensional simulations of density currents within a dry, neutrally stable environment are used to examine the ability of a cold pool to lift environmental air within a vertically sheared flow. The results confirm that the addition of upper-level shear to a wind profile with weak to moderate low-level shear increases the vertical displacement of low-level parcels despite a decrease in the vertical velocity along the cold pool interface, as suggested by previous studies. Parcels that are elevated above the surface (1-2 km) overturn and are responsible for the deep lifting in the deep-shear environments. This deep overturning caused by the upper-level shear helps to maintain the tilt of the convective systems in more complex two-dimensional and three dimensional simulations. The overturning also is shown to greatly increase the size of the convective systems in the three-dimensional simulations by facilitating the initiation and maintenance of convective cells along the cold pool. When combined with estimates of the cold pool motion and the storm-relative hodograph, these results may best be used for the prediction of the demise of strong, linear mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) and may provide a conceptual model for the persistence of strong MCSs above a surface nocturnal inversion in situations that are not forced by a low-level jet.

Common large-scale environments associated with the development of derecho-producing convective systems from a large number of events are identified using statistical clustering of the 500-mb geopotential heights as guidance. The majority of the events (72%) fall into three main patterns that include a well-defined upstream trough (40%), a ridge (20%), and a zonal, low-amplitude flow (12%), which is defined as an additional warm-season pattern that is not identified in past studies of derecho environments. Through an analysis of proximity soundings, discrepancies are found in both low-level and deep-tropospheric shear parameters between observations and the shear profiles considered favorable for strong, long-lived convective systems in idealized simulations.