ALIGNING EXPECTATIONS IN AN ERA OF UNEVEN CHANGE: GENDER DIFFERENCES IN EDUCATIONAL AND OCCUPATIONAL PLANS

Abstract

Over the past half-century, profound shifts toward gender equality – often called a “gender revolution” – have occurred. However, the significant gains made by women in educational attainment have not translated into similar advances in the labor market. A gender gap in earnings persists, and many occupations remain highly segregated by gender. One possible source of this uneven progress is adolescents’ alignment of their educational and occupational goals. This dissertation investigates the alignment between adolescents’ educational and occupational expectations since the onset and subsequent stall of the gender revolution. Drawing on 43 years of data from the 12th grade Monitoring the Future (MTF) surveys, I examine how the alignment of adolescents’ educational and occupational plans has changed over time and how these changes vary across key social dimensions like gender, race, and social class. Guided by Situated Expectancy-Value Theory (SEVT), which emphasizes the dynamic interaction between social context and individual expectations, I revisit and expand upon Schneider and Stevenson’s (2000) concept of “aligned expectations” to explore whether youth, particularly young women, make educational decisions that match their occupational goals. Analyses show that while overall rates of alignment of educational and occupational expectations have remained stable, young women are more likely than young men to express aligned plans, particularly for advanced professional careers. Further, this gender advantage is stratified by race and social class. While there is a gender gap favoring young women among both White and Black students, this gap is much larger for Black respondents. Regardless of social class, young women are more likely than men to have aligned plans. However, the reversal of the gender gap in aligned expectations varies significantly across social classes, with less pronounced changes observed among women from higher social backgrounds. Intersectional analyses indicate that for Black women, the alignment of their educational and occupational expectations is significantly shaped by the presence of two college-educated parents. Finally, I introduce an expanded, three-tiered measure of alignment - non-professional, professional, and advanced professional – allowing a more nuanced analysis of how youth align their educational and occupational plans. I find that women are increasingly aligning their educational plans for careers requiring advanced degrees. These findings provide a comprehensive, intersectional analysis of how adolescents’ educational and occupational expectations have evolved across a critical period for gender equality and are shaped by the socio-cultural context. The results presented here contribute to the sociological understanding of the stalled gender revolution by highlighting the alignment of educational and occupational expectations as a critical yet overlooked factor for understanding enduring barriers and stalled progress in achieving gender equality in education and the labor market.