THE VISUAL LANGUAGE OF TORNADO WARNINGS: PERCEPTION AND EMOTIONAL RESPONSE ACROSS FORMAT AND EXPOSURE

Abstract

Tornadoes are one of the most dangerous weather hazards in the United States, prompting theNational Weather Service to continuously evaluate how warnings are communicated to the public. Amid concerns that over-warning may erode public trust and a belief that current warnings can be further refined, this study employed a mixed design to test the effectiveness of traditional versus probabilistic tornado warning formats. A total of 347 participants were randomly assigned to receive one of the two formats across three simulated exposures. The study measured perceived likelihood, severity, message clarity, information sufficiency and seeking, and protective action intention, all components of the Protective Action Decision Model. It also measured cognitive load, Perceived Message Sensation Value, message fatigue, and desensitization, all novel applications from the field of health communication. While the probabilistic format was consistently rated as more novel, emotionally arousing, and dramatic— without invoking significant mental effort—traditional formats were rated significantly higher in perceptions of likelihood, severity, and protective action intention when averaged across all three exposures. Contrary to prevailing assumptions, participants did not perceive high message fatigue; in fact, individuals reporting higher fatigue indicated greater trust in forecasters. These findings suggest that probabilistic warnings amplify perceived threat in the most at-risk areas and reduce perceived threat in regions farther from the core impact zone. Fears of over-warning are not supported by the available data.