Metapopulation Dynamics Enable Persistence of Influenza A, Including A/H5N1, in Poultry

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dc.contributor.authorParviez Rana Hosseinien_US
dc.contributor.authorTrevon Fulleren_US
dc.contributor.authorRyan Harriganen_US
dc.contributor.authorDelong Zhaoen_US
dc.contributor.authorCarmen Sofia Arriolaen_US
dc.contributor.authorArmandoe Gonzalezen_US
dc.contributor.authorMatthew Joshua Milleren_US
dc.contributor.authorXiangming Xiaoen_US
dc.contributor.authorTom B. Smithen_US
dc.contributor.authorJamie Holland Jonesen_US
dc.contributor.authorPeter Daszaken_US
dc.date.accessioned2015-01-23T17:17:49Z
dc.date.accessioned2016-03-30T15:36:19Z
dc.date.available2015-01-23T17:17:49Z
dc.date.available2016-03-30T15:36:19Z
dc.date.issued2013-12-02en_US
dc.descriptionThanks to K. Sturm-Ramirez, C. Jessup, J. Rosenthal and the staff of EcoHealth Alliance for feedback. Disclaimer: The contents are the responsibility of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of USAID or the United States Government.en_US
dc.descriptionConceived and designed the experiments: PRH TF RH DZ CSA AG MJM XX TB PD. Performed the experiments: PRH. Analyzed the data: PRH. Contributed reagents/materials/analysis tools: PRH TF RH DZ CSA AG MJM XX TB JHJ PD. Wrote the paper: PRH TF RH DZ CSA AG MJM XX TB JHJ PD.en_US
dc.description.abstractHighly pathogenic influenza A/H5N1 has persistently but sporadically caused human illness and death since 1997. Yet it is still unclear how this pathogen is able to persist globally. While wild birds seem to be a genetic reservoir for influenza A, they do not seem to be the main source of human illness. Here, we highlight the role that domestic poultry may play in maintaining A/H5N1 globally, using theoretical models of spatial population structure in poultry populations. We find that a metapopulation of moderately sized poultry flocks can sustain the pathogen in a finite poultry population for over two years. Our results suggest that it is possible that moderately intensive backyard farms could sustain the pathogen indefinitely in real systems. This fits a pattern that has been observed from many empirical systems. Rather than just employing standard culling procedures to control the disease, our model suggests ways that poultry production systems may be modified.en_US
dc.description.peerreviewYesen_US
dc.description.peerreviewnoteshttp://www.plosone.org/static/editorial#peeren_US
dc.identifier.citationHosseini PR, Fuller T, Harrigan R, Zhao D, Arriola CS, et al. (2013) Metapopulation Dynamics Enable Persistence of Influenza A, Including A/H5N1, in Poultry. PLoS ONE 8(12): e80091. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0080091en_US
dc.identifier.doi10.1371/journal.pone.0080091en_US
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/11244/14102
dc.language.isoen_USen_US
dc.publisherPLos Oneen_US
dc.relation.ispartofseriesPLoS ONE 8(12):e80091en_US
dc.relation.urihttp://www.plosone.org/article/info%3Adoi%2F10.1371%2Fjournal.pone.0080091en_US
dc.rightsAttribution 3.0 United Statesen_US
dc.rights.requestablefalseen_US
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/us/en_US
dc.subjectPLOSen_US
dc.subjectPublic Library of Scienceen_US
dc.subjectOpen Accessen_US
dc.subjectOpen-Accessen_US
dc.subjectScienceen_US
dc.subjectMedicineen_US
dc.subjectBiologyen_US
dc.subjectResearchen_US
dc.subjectPeer-reviewen_US
dc.subjectInclusiveen_US
dc.subjectInterdisciplinaryen_US
dc.subjectAnte-disciplinaryen_US
dc.subjectPhysicsen_US
dc.subjectChemistryen_US
dc.subjectEngineeringen_US
dc.titleMetapopulation Dynamics Enable Persistence of Influenza A, Including A/H5N1, in Poultryen_US
dc.typeResearch Articleen_US

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