On the Methodological and Normative Foundations of Probabilism

Epley, Patrick

On the Methodological and Normative Foundations of Probabilism

dc.contributor.advisor	Hawthorne, James
dc.contributor.author	Epley, Patrick
dc.contributor.committeeMember	Ellis, Stephen
dc.contributor.committeeMember	Montminy, Martin
dc.contributor.committeeMember	Riggs, Wayne
dc.contributor.committeeMember	Terry, Robert
dc.date.accessioned	2015-12-16T21:52:05Z
dc.date.available	2015-12-16T21:52:05Z
dc.date.issued	2015-12-18
dc.date.manuscript	2015
dc.description.abstract	This dissertation is an elaboration and defense of probabilism, the view that belief comes in various degrees of strength, and that the probability calculus provides coherence norms for these degrees of belief. Probabilism faces several well-known objections. For example, critics object that probabilism’s numerical representation of degrees of belief is too precise, and that its coherence norms are too demanding for real human agents to follow. While probabilists have developed several plausible responses to these objections, the compatibility among these responses is unclear. On this basis, I argue that probabilists must articulate unified methodological and normative foundations for their view, and I sketch the foundations of a probabilist modeling framework, the Comparative Confidence Framework (CCF). CCF characterizes probabilism primarily as an account of ideal degree of belief coherence. CCF provides a set of fundamentally qualitative and comparative—rather than quantitative—evaluative ideals for degree of belief coherence. By providing qualitative, comparative, evaluative coherence norms for degrees of belief, CCF avoids the aforementioned objections: that probabilism’s formal representation of degrees of belief is too precise, and that its norms are too demanding. CCF is a first step in the development of unified foundations for a wider subjectivist Bayesian theory of doxastic and pragmatic rationality.	en_US
dc.identifier.uri	http://hdl.handle.net/11244/23304
dc.language	en_US	en_US
dc.subject	probabilism	en_US
dc.subject	Bayesianism	en_US
dc.subject	comparative confidence	en_US
dc.subject	coherence	en_US
dc.thesis.degree	Ph.D.	en_US
dc.title	On the Methodological and Normative Foundations of Probabilism	en_US
ou.group	College of Arts and Sciences::Department of Philosophy	en_US