Subseasonal to Seasonal Weather Patterns

Abstract

The sixth chapter of the S3OK Framework examines subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) weather patterns in Oklahoma and their implications for disaster risk, water and energy management, agriculture, and infrastructure resilience. Oklahoma’s location in the Great Plains—marked by sharp east–west precipitation gradients and highly variable temperature regimes—makes it especially vulnerable to rapid swings between extremes, including heatwaves, cold air outbreaks, flash droughts, and precipitation “whiplash” events. This chapter situates S2S forecasting within a “predictability desert” between short-term weather and seasonal climate prediction and identifies key drivers of S2S variability. This chapter also integrates social science evidence on public awareness and use of S2S forecasts, documenting gaps between forecast availability and public uptake, delays in drought awareness based on digital behavior, and implications for risk communication. In sum, this chapter demonstrates how integrating advances in S2S forecasting with social dynamics can enhance early warning, risk communication, and adaptive decision-making to support climate resilience in Oklahoma and similar regions.