Congressional Seat Swings: Revisiting Exposure in House Elections

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dc.contributor.authorRonald Keith Gaddie
dc.date.accessioned2016-01-14T19:53:28Z
dc.date.accessioned2016-03-30T15:36:31Z
dc.date.available2016-01-14T19:53:28Z
dc.date.available2016-03-30T15:36:31Z
dc.date.issued1997-09-01
dc.description.abstractOppenheimer, Stimson, and Waterman's exposure thesis of partisan change contends that shifts in the partisan composition of Congress are related to the long-term stability of the electoral system. Applying their exposure model to elections from 1962-1994 produces seat change estimates that generally follow the actual data pattern, but these estimates produce large predictive errors. When the exposure model is reestimated using data from 1962-1994, exposure is not significantly related to partisan seat swings. This article advances a seat change model that relies on an alter nate measure of exposure: the net exposure of the president's party in open seats. Open-seat exposure is significantly related to the partisan seat swing, and substantially improves on the economic evaluation/surge and-decline/ exposure model of seat change. In an era of high incumbent security and strategic retirement from Congress, the balance of open seats is a better indicator of partisan vulnerability, and better reflects the nature of partisan exposure.en_US
dc.description.peerreviewYesen_US
dc.description.peerreviewnoteshttps://us.sagepub.com/en-us/nam/manuscript-submission-guidelinesen_US
dc.identifier.citationGaddie, R. K. (1997). Congressional Seat Swings: Revisiting Exposure in House Elections. Political Research Quarterly, 50(3), 699-710. doi: 10.1177/106591299705000310en_US
dc.identifier.doi10.1177/106591299705000310en_US
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/11244/25273
dc.language.isoen_USen_US
dc.publisherPolitical Research Quarterly
dc.rightsAttribution 3.0 United States
dc.rights.requestablefalseen_US
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/us/
dc.subjecten_US
dc.titleCongressional Seat Swings: Revisiting Exposure in House Electionsen_US
dc.typeResearch Articleen_US

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