Key Performance Indicators of Success in NCAA Women's College Basketball

Abstract

Despite analysis of key performance indicators (KPIs) in men’s and professional basketball, comparable research in women’s college basketball remains limited. This gap persists even with the unprecedented growth and increased visibility of the women’s game in recent years. This study addresses this imbalance by examining box score data from an NCAA Power 4 conference between the 2021-25 seasons. Using an adaptation of Dean Oliver’s Four Factors framework, three KPIs associated with winning were identified: effective field goal percentage (eFG), rebounding margin (REBMARG), and turnover margin (TOMARG). Results indicated that a one-unit increase in turnover margin corresponded to a 74.3 percent increase in the odds of winning a given game. For a specific Power 4 program, conditional inference trees (CITs) revealed a unique combination of KPIs that maximized winning. A distinct combination of points and personal fouls were associated with a 97.3 percent winning percentage. Collectively, these findings provide a foundation for developing a data-driven game model to achieve sustained success in the NCAA women’s college basketball landscape.