UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS OF PRODUCTION FORECAST IN SHALE SYSTEMS
| dc.contributor.advisor | MOGHANLOO, ROUZBEH | |
| dc.contributor.author | MABADEJE, ADEMIDE | |
| dc.contributor.committeeMember | VENKATRAMAN, ASHWIN | |
| dc.contributor.committeeMember | DEVEGOWDA, DEEPAK | |
| dc.date.accessioned | 2019-05-10T20:39:15Z | |
| dc.date.available | 2019-05-10T20:39:15Z | |
| dc.date.issued | 2019-05-10 | |
| dc.date.manuscript | 2019-05-10 | |
| dc.description.abstract | This research evaluates the impact of decision making and uncertainty associated with production forecast in shale oil and gas wells; over 11000 wells completed in the Barnett & Haynesville plays and more than 2000 wells from the Permian Basin. Existing studies show that unconventional reservoirs have complex reservoir characteristics making traditional methods for ultimate recovery estimation insufficient. Based on these limitations, uncertainty is increased during the estimation of reservoir properties, reserve quantification and, evaluation of economic viability. Thus, it is necessary to determine and recommend favorable conditions in which these reservoirs are developed. In this study, cumulative production is predicted using four different decline curve analysis (DCA) - power law exponential, stretched exponential, extended exponential and Duong models. A comparison between the predicted cumulative production from the models using a subset of historical data (0-3months) and actual production data observed over the same time period determines the accuracy of DCA’s; repeating the evaluation for subsequent time intervals (0-6 months, 0-9 months,..) provides a basis to monitor the performance of each DCA with time. Moreover, the best predictive models as a combination of DCA’s predictions is determined via multivariate regression. Afterwards, uncertainty due to prediction errors excluding any bias is estimated and expected disappointment (ED) is calculated using probability density function on the results obtained. Using these results, uncertainty is estimated from the plot of ED versus time for all wells considered. ED drops for wells having a longer production history as more data are used for estimation. Also, the surprise/disappointment an operator experiences when using various DCA methods is estimated for each scenario. However, it appears that power law exponential serves as the lower boundary of the forecast in the formations considered, whilst the upper boundary switches between stretched exponential (SE) and Duong (DNG) method. The extend exponential DCA model was found to demonstrate an erratic behavior crossing over actual trends multiple times with time. In conclusion, profitability zones for producing oil in the Permian basin are defined implicitly based on drilling and completion practices which paves the path to determine the “sweet spot” via optimization of fracture spacing and horizontal length in the wells. Also, it can be inferred that the decline rate during production is somewhat related to pore connectivity and it could be a good qualitative indicator of wells in which EOR might be successful although it needs to be investigated further. The outcome of this research work helps improve the industry’s take on uncertainty analysis in production forecast, especially the concept of expected disappointment/pleasant surprise. This study suggests that effects of bias and ED due to decision making can be much greater than what has often regarded; ranging from 0.41 to 0.86, which can change the performance evaluation of shales in terms of economic feasibility. | en_US |
| dc.identifier.uri | https://hdl.handle.net/11244/319719 | |
| dc.language | en_US | en_US |
| dc.rights | Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International | * |
| dc.rights.uri | http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/ | * |
| dc.subject | UNCERTAINTY | en_US |
| dc.subject | PRODUCTION FORECAST | en_US |
| dc.subject | SHALE | en_US |
| dc.subject | EXPECTED DISAPPOINTMENT | en_US |
| dc.thesis.degree | Master of Science in Natural Gas Engineering and Management | en_US |
| dc.title | UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS OF PRODUCTION FORECAST IN SHALE SYSTEMS | en_US |
| ou.group | Mewbourne College of Earth and Energy::Mewbourne School of Petroleum and Geological Engineering | en_US |
| shareok.nativefileaccess | restricted | en_US |