HAZARD AND RESILIENCE ASSESSMENTS OF ELECTRICAL DISTRIBUTION NETWORKS SUBJECT TO WILDFIRES AT THE WILDLAND-URBAN INTERFACE

Abstract

This dissertation presents a comprehensive assessment of hazards and resilience strategies for electrical distribution networks in the context of increasing fire risk at the wildland-urban interface (WUI). Motivated by the rising frequency of extreme weather events and wildfires across Oklahoma—particularly those threatening critical infrastructure in urban areas—this dissertation addresses a growing concern: the vulnerability of electrical systems to fire weather conditions and the cascading risks to the communities they serve. Notably, this work is conducted in the absence of a well-established literature base on urban fire hazard mapping resulting from electrical infrastructure failures, despite growing evidence that such events are increasing in frequency, infrastructure damage, injuries, and fatalities. The dissertation is structured into four primary components. First, a statewide analysis of wildfire history in Oklahoma is conducted using U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) records from 1992 to 2020, resulting in probabilistic hazard maps that characterize regional ignition patterns and megafire trends. Second, a detailed case study of the March 31, 2023, wildfire outbreak investigates fire weather conditions, community resilience, emergency response, and public risk perceptions. Third, a Monte Carlo-based hazard framework is developed to simulate self-induced urban fire scenarios caused by wind-damaged electrical poles. These simulations integrate fragility curves, ignition probability models, and fire spread data from FARSITE to produce spatial urban fire hazard maps and identify exposed electrical conductors and poles. Finally, a resilience framework is proposed to evaluate network performance under fire-related disruptions and to optimize post-fire restoration using criticality-based repair crew assignments. Key findings reveal that, while small wildfires are more common, the frequency of megafires is increasing, particularly in western Oklahoma. Human-caused ignitions dominate the ignition sources, and wind-induced failures in aging infrastructure present a serious fire hazard. The developed hazard maps identify vulnerable regions within electrical networks, and the resilience assessment demonstrates that proactive crew allocation significantly improves power restoration times under high wind scenarios. These results show the importance of integrating fire weather forecasting with infrastructure fragility analysis and restoration strategies. The findings have direct implications for emergency management, electric utilities, and community planners. They show the need for preemptive planning, improved infrastructure design, and interdisciplinary coordination to strengthen resilience at the WUI. This work serves as a foundation for scalable hazard-resilience frameworks applicable to other regions facing similar wildfire threats.