From Adoption to Evacuation: A Multi-Scale Framework for Resilient and Economically Viable Electrified Transportation Systems

Abstract

The transition to electric vehicles (EVs) is reshaping transportation systems by creating interdependencies among adoption patterns, charging infrastructure deployment, public acceptance, local economic activity, and emergency mobility. Although EVs can reduce transportation emissions and support sustainable mobility, realizing these benefits requires addressing interconnected challenges associated with demand growth, infrastructure investment, public acceptance, and transportation-system resilience. This dissertation advances an integrated, multi-scale decision-support framework for planning emerging electrified mobility systems while accounting for accessibility, economic viability, social sustainability, and resilience in at-risk communities. The framework integrates EV demand forecasting, charging infrastructure siting, public acceptance analysis, local economic impact assessment, and evacuation performance evaluation under wildfire conditions. The dissertation comprises eight chapters, beginning with an introduction, followed by six interconnected empirical and modeling studies, and ending with a conclusion. Chapter 2 develops county-level EV adoption forecasts for 770 counties across twelve U.S. states using monthly EV registration data from January 2022 through December 2025. A calibrated logistic-diffusion model projects EV adoption through 2035 and is evaluated using a one-year hold-out forecasting period. The resulting spatially resolved demand forecast serves as the foundation for subsequent planning analyses. Building on this forecast, Chapter 3 addresses EV charging-station siting as a hazard-aware planning problem by integrating GIS-based suitability analysis, multi-criteria decision-making, and spatial optimization to support resilient charging-infrastructure deployment in Oklahoma. The framework accounts for accessibility, projected demand, proximity to daily activity destinations, and exposure to flood and wildfire hazards. To connect spatial planning with public perspectives, Chapter 4 examines public acceptance and policy responses to charging-system resilience using a statewide survey representative of Oklahoma residents. It introduces EV reliability anxiety, a two-factor construct reflecting perceived natural-hazard exposure and energy-infrastructure vulnerability. Binary logit, ordered logit, and contingent-valuation models show how reliability concerns influence perceptions of charging-accessibility challenges, support for transportation-resilience policies, and willingness to pay for infrastructure improvements. Extending the analysis to economic outcomes, Chapter 5 evaluates the local economic returns to charging infrastructure using a matched panel of 123,762 businesses and 4.32 million monthly point-of-interest observations across twelve states. Econometric analyses identify an adoption threshold of approximately 10.85 EVs per 1,000 population. Above this threshold, additional nearby charging ports are associated with measurable increases in consumer spending, while initial charging investments can generate economic benefits even in lower-adoption markets. Chapters 6 and 7 extend the framework from long-term planning to hazard operations. Chapter 6 formalizes green gridlock as a systemic risk whereby transportation electrification may constrain evacuation effectiveness when wildfire exposure, grid disruption, limited charging access, and uneven community preparedness coincide. It combines wildfire exposure, projected EV concentration, and a Community Preparedness Index (CPI) to identify where and when critical evacuation vulnerability may emerge in Colorado. Chapter 7 tests this mechanism operationally through an activity-based wildfire-evacuation microsimulation in Boulder County, Colorado. The simulation integrates a synthetic population, daily activity patterns, mixed-fleet traffic dynamics, battery-energy constraints, stranded-vehicle clearance processes, and mobile fast-charging mitigation across corridor, canyon, and foothills environments to assess system-wide evacuation impacts. Collectively, the findings demonstrate that resilient electrified transportation systems cannot be planned solely through the expansion of charging infrastructure or increases in EV adoption. Effective planning requires an integrated view of demand growth, hazard-aware infrastructure placement, public acceptance, economic viability, community preparedness, and emergency planning for evacuation scenarios. By integrating these dimensions across spatial scales, planning horizons, and operating conditions, this dissertation advances a comprehensive decision-support framework for developing electrified transportation systems that are cleaner, more reliable, economically viable, socially sustainable, and resilient to future disruptions.