Estimated Impacts of Mexican Regional Trade Restrictions Associated with Bovine Health Campaigns

Abstract

Tuberculosis restrictions on animal movement have important implications for Mexican producers and consumers as well as the U.S. beef cattle industry. A spatial linear programming model was used to analyze scenarios of regional restrictions on domestic animal movements and exports due to Tuberculosis status. Changing the regional Tuberculosis status in Mexico impacts the level and composition of regional beef cattle production. Additional unrestricted regions permits more efficient long run location of cow-calf, stocker and grass-finishing activities and reduces interregional animal shipments in Mexico. In general, releasing trade and movement restrictions results in increased cattle exports and increased beef imports in Mexico. The result is increased value of beef cattle exports for Mexican producers; less feedlot finishing of cattle in Mexico, and increased beef cost for Mexican consumers. Models results confirm that Mexico has a comparative advantage in cow-calf production compared to cattle feeding.