What Factors Influence How a State Will Vote on Animal Welfare Ballot Initiatives?

Abstract

The objective of this research is to investigate the demographic and attitudinal factors influencing voting patterns on Proposition 2 in California, which is generally considered the most important livestock welfare referendum thus far. The specific factors considered are income, wealth, gender, population density, agricultural familiarity, political affiliations, and religion. Regression analysis will be used to explain voting patterns across California counties as a function of the aforementioned variables. Although the statistical importance of each variable is of interest, this study focuses primarily on prediction. Model selection criteria will be used to identify the models which best predict voting patterns; these models are then employed to predict voter approval of a measure like Proposition 2 in other U.S. states. Our strongest predictor variables were Vote for Obama and Median Household Income in Model A. Although the number of other predictor variables such as percent Evangelical Protestant, and percent Mainline Protestant explain a proportion of variation in support for Proposition 2. The proportion of votes in favor of Proposition 2 was higher in states that had a higher proportion of votes for Obama and median household income. The proportion of votes in favor of Proposition 2 was lower in states that had a higher proportion of those claiming Evangelical Protestant or Mainline Protestant. The states that are least likely to vote for a measure like Proposition 2 are Oklahoma, Wyoming, Idaho, Utah, and Arkansas. The states that are most likely to vote for a measure like Proposition 2 are Hawaii, Vermont, Maryland, Massachusetts, and Connecticut.