Admissions criteria as predictors of academic success in first- and second- year osteopathic medical students

Abstract

Scope and Method of Study: Overall undergraduate grade point average (GPA), Science GPA, and MCAT scores (Medical College Admission Test) are nationally used as the leading criteria for medical school recruitment and admission, and therefore treated as the primary predictors of academic success in medical schools. The model and practice of using statistical analysis to determine the justifiable use of certain admission criteria to predict academic performance in medical school has been researched but also recommends localized study. Using discriminant analysis (DA) theory as the analytical lens in this study, data from nine years of medical classes were collected for the participants, once upon matriculation into medical school and then collected again, after their second year of coursework, allowing for implications in the predictive value of the admissions criteria on student academic success or failure.

Findings and Conclusions: This study found that 15 percent of the total group met the definition of academic difficulty. Science GPA seemed to best indicate students who would most likely experience academic difficulty within their first two years of medical school, with overall undergraduate GPA next and MCAT score correlating the least. As a criterion set, the between group variability accounted for by the discriminant function was significant but small at (4.4 percent). The correct classification was achieved in 84.8 percent of the cases reflecting a fairly high practical value of analysis. However, implications regarding restriction of criterion variables should be considered.