Scenario optimization approach for designing biomass supply chain

Abstract

Scope and Method of Study:

Commercialization of biofuel industry is highly dependent on development of efficient biomass supply chain system. The effect of uncertain parameters on biomass supply chain needs to be investigated for realistic and robust economic assessment of the system. The present study focuses on the development of scenario optimization model for maximizing profit of biomass supply to biorefinery under weather uncertainty. The model determines material flow, number of harvest units, in-field transportation units, transportation units, storage method, and allocation of units to sites. The applicability of proposed model is demonstrated by developing a case study for Abengoa ethanol biorefinery at Hugoton, Kansas.

Findings and Conclusions:

The scenario optimization model developed in the present study has the ability to determine material flows along with the number of harvesting units, in-field transportation units, and transportation units required by the biorefinery while considering the weather uncertainty. The optimization model takes into consideration the purchasing and deployment of assets, with a highly seasonal production of biomass. The case study for Abengoa Biorefinery at Hugoton, Kansas presents the practical application of the model. It was concluded that harvest work hours influence the major cost related decisions in biomass supply chain. The results also indicate that yield of biomass is a crucial factor in determining the profit of biomass supply to the biorefinery. The modeling approach can be also extended to large-scale application. The direction for future research should be to consider different types of biomass feedstocks and conversion processes into the model.