Work requirements and welfare participation: Analyzing the effects of the JOBS program.

Abstract

The 1996 welfare reform relies heavily on work as an antidote to "dependency." But have we any reason to expect work requirements to spur people to leave welfare? Recent experience provides an opportunity to analyze the effects of work requirements. The Job Opportunities and Basic Skills (JOBS) program was created as part of the Family Support Act of 1988 (FSA), a welfare reform that established work requirements for recipients of Aid to Families with Dependent Children (AFDC). JOBS can be thought of as a case study in work requirements. Since the 1996 reform relies on work requirements to reduce welfare participation, it is easy to justify a search for empirical evidence of that connection. This research analyzes the impact of the JOBS program in the American states. The effects of work requirements are estimated within a quantitative model of AFDC participation that draws heavily from two theoretical perspectives.

The results generally support development and rational choice theories. However, work requirements associated with the 1988 reform have not significantly affected AFDC participation rates. The estimate of JOBS' impact is negative, as expected, but quite small. A percentage point increase in JOBS participation is associated with a decline in AFDC recipiency the following year of just 0.008 percentage points. When the model is applied to a real case, the magnitude of JOBS' effect on AFDC participation ranks ninth among ten variables.