The assessment of climatological impacts on agricultural production and residential energy demand /

Abstract

Two user groups of major economic importance were selected for study; agriculture and gas utilities. The broad agricultural sector is further defined as U.S.A. corn production. The general category of utilities is narrowed to Oklahoma residential gas heating demand.

The CERES physiological growth model was selected as the process model for corn production. The statistical analysis for corn production suggests that (1) although this is a statistically complex model, it can yield useful impact information, (2) as a result of output distributional biases, traditional statistical techniques are not adequate analytical tools, (3) the model yield distribution as a whole is probably non-Gausian, particularly in the tails and (4) there appears to be identifiable weekly patterns of forecasted yields throughout the growing season. Agricultural quantities developed include point yield impact estimates and distributional characteristics, geographic corn weather distributions, return period estimates, decision making criteria (confidence limits) and time series of indices. These products were communicated in economic terms through the use of a Bayesian decision example and an econometric model.

The NBSLD energy load model was selected to represent residential gas heating consumption. A cursory statistical analysis suggests relationships among weather variables across the Oklahoma study sites. No linear trend in "technology-free" modeled energy demand or input weather variables which would correspond to that contained in observed state-level residential energy use was detected. It is suggested that this trend is largely the result of non-weather factors such as population and home usage patterns rather than regional climate change. Year-to-year changes in modeled residential heating demand on the order of 10('6) Btu's per household were determined and later related to state-level components of the Oklahoma economy. Products developed include the definition of regional forecast areas, likelihood estimates of extreme seasonal conditions and an energy/climate index. This information is communicated in economic terms through an input/output model which is used to estimate changes in Gross State Product and Household income attributable to weather variability.

The assessment of climatological impacts on selected economic activities is presented as a multi-step, inter-disciplinary problem. The assessment process which is addressed explicitly in this report focuses on (1) user identification, (2) direct impact model selection, (3) methodological development, (4) product development and (5) product communication.