Potential Outcomes of the Syrian Conflict: A Case Study for Understanding Civil War Termination

Abstract

The Syrian conflict has been ongoing for the last six years and has left the international community unsure of how or when it will end. Existing literature on civil war termination creates a framework in which we can better understand what the potential outcomes for the conflict will be. These outcomes are negotiated settlement and decisive military victory. The civil war literature indicates that the conflict is not likely to end in negotiated settlement due to the failure of the peace process thus far and that decisive military victory by the Asad government is the most likely outcome of the conflict. Additionally, civil war literature explains that a conflict like the Syrian conflict is not likely to end quickly due to domestic and international actors acting as spoilers to the peace process. While the international community has pushed for negotiated settlement, it needs to be prepared for both potential outcomes. This thesis argues that because a decisive military victory by the Asad government is the most likely outcome, the period following the conflict will not be peaceful. The Syrian government is likely to continue its crackdown on opposition groups and continue to commit human rights violations and the opposition is not likely to disarm peacefully. Thus, the end of a conflict does not mean the end of violence. This will make reconstruction extremely difficult and the ongoing refugee crisis is likely to continue. Therefore, the international community not only needs to be prepared for an Asad victory, but for the worsening of the current humanitarian crisis.