The role of a decision maker's perspective in the generation and assessment of actions in a conflict situation.

Abstract

These results may suggest that perspective has only limited influence on the generation and assessment of actions an opponent might take to resolve a conflict. Without further research, it is difficult to determine whether perspective impairs a decision maker's performance in a conflict or whether its influence is only salient in hindsight.

Experiment 2 was performed to assess the effect of providing information about an opponent's objectives on the generation of actions the opponent might take to resolve a conflict. One set of Guerrilla subjects read irrelevant information about the geography of France, other Guerrilla subjects were asked to imagine the French government's objectives, and a third set of Guerrilla subjects read an explicit description of the French government's objectives. A control condition was assigned the French perspective. Again, only subtle differences were found in act generation. Guerrilla subjects who read explicit information about the French government's objectives generated acts more beneficial to the French than subjects in other Guerrilla conditions. Guerrilla subjects reading irrelevant information about France generated acts more likely to benefit both parties than the French subjects. Subjects did not differ in their estimates of the likelihood with which the French government might take actions or in their estimates of the French government's preferences for actions.

Two experiments were performed to assess the influence of perspective and information on the generation of actions an opponent might take to resolve a hypothetical hostage conflict. In the first experiment, subjects were assigned the perspective of a guerrilla, a hostage, or an advisor to the President of France. Subjects generated five actions the French government was most likely to take to resolve the conflict, ranked the actions, then provided estimates of likelihood and the French government's preferences for a specified set of actions. Only subtle differences in performance resulted from manipulating perspective. Hostage subjects generated acts more likely to benefit both decision makers than subjects in other conditions. All Guerrilla subjects generated at least one military action, while some subjects in the other perspective conditions failed to generate any.