The Impact of School and District Fiscal Decisions and Demographic Characteristics on Oklahoma Elementary School Principal Turnover

Abstract

This study is a quantitative, causal comparative study exploring the effect that various school-level and district-level fiscal decisions and demographic characteristics have on elementary principal turnover within Oklahoma public schools. This study was distinguished by its methods and context in the form of a replication study of Maiden, Crowson, and Byerly (2020). The population in the study is 987 elementary schools, which are nested within 524 public school districts. The initial analysis used hierarchical linear modeling and binary logistical regression to measure the relationship between the study predictive variables and principal turnover. Due to an oversimplification of the dependent variable, a follow-up analysis was conducted using multinomial logistic regression with an increased precision of the dependent variable. This study was cross-sectional and conducted analysis from the 2021-2022 school/fiscal years. The results indicated a significant relationship with principal turnover and the district percentage of principal turnover. The study results also indicated increased rates of turnover within schools that employ multi-site and/or multi-principals and increased rates of turnover in rural schools, especially when the rural school employs a multi-site or multi-role principal. There were also conclusions of increased rates of lateral turnover in nonrural schools, increased rates of retention in schools with the highest and lowest concentration of students considered economically disadvantaged, and the follow-up analysis yielded a significant relationship between school-level administrative per-pupil expenditures and turnover among schools with principals who left for promotions.