When is the party over? Examining the success of liberal ballot measures in conservative states

Abstract

Party ID continues to be a dominant force in American politics and generally is one of the most reliable predictors of voter behavior up and down the ballot. Some recent electoral results have challenged this narrative, namely the success of liberal ballot measures such as Medicaid expansion and minimum wage increases in conservative states. Why are conservative voters breaking from the party on some ballot measures? To answer this question, this paper will utilize a logistic regression model to investigate the success of liberal ballot measures in conservative states. I argue that self-interest, namely in the form of economic self-interest, causes some Republican voters to indicate support for policies that are not in line with their party’s position. I find support for this hypothesis, demonstrating a positive effect between self-interest and Republicans support for Medicaid expansion and raising the minimum wage. This paper makes a significant contribution to our understanding of the limitations of party ID and with the insights gained , will hopefully inform strategies to overcome polarization in other instances in order to craft more representative policy.