Forecasting and Early Cycle Creative Processes: Effects on Complex Problem Solving

Abstract

Prior research has identified a core set of early and late processes that make up creative problem-solving. Additionally, researchers have highlighted certain skills that further bolster creative output. The importance of one such skill, forecasting, has been observed many times in prior studies. However, these studies tend to observe forecasting in late stages of creativity. Little is known about how forecasting functions if it is carried out earlier in the creative problem-solving process. Along similar lines relatively little is known about how positive and negative valence of forecasts function when carried out early in the process of creative cognition. In the present study, 267 undergraduates were asked to take on the role of a restaurant development consultant and to develop a plan for a new restaurant concept. Participants responded to prompts which primed each stage of the creative problem-solving process before coming up with a final plan for a new restaurant. Manipulations were embedded into the prompts to alter valence and timeframe of their forecasts. It was found that thinking in terms of long-term or both long-term and short-term consequences is beneficial to creative problem solving. Additionally, a positive valence of forecasts was seen to be beneficial to certain creative processes, however for a higher quality, more original, and more elegant final product, a negative valence was seen to be critical. The implications of these findings for understanding forecasting and creative problem solving are discussed.