Disasters and dropouts: The effect of disasters on Texas high school dropout and graduation rates 2010-2018

Abstract

Schools contain some of the most vulnerable populations in a community. When a disaster strikes, the focus is primarily on the physical damages caused by the event. Previous studies that use test scores to measure disaster impact may fail to identify students who dropped out of school. Studies that incorporate dropout data generally only look at overall rates that may not capture significant changes to at-risk populations.

This study examines the sociological impact in determining a disaster event's effect on high school dropout and graduation rates. The study examined eight years of disaster and educational data from the Texas Education Agency covering overall dropout and graduation rates and the rates for at-risk subgroups. Federal Emergency Management Agency disaster declarations provided the basis for disaster data. Data analyses uses an Independent Samples 1-tailed T-test.

The study provides insight into the effect of disasters based on the size, type, and timing of the event and the student populations affected. Significant results appeared in all disaster events; however, some events demonstrated an impact in only a few student subgroups. Most events showed a negative impact on at-risk populations and, at times, in populations generally considered at a lower risk for dropping out. One event demonstrated a positive impact from a disaster event on dropout and graduation rates.

The study demonstrates that disasters can affect a student's decision to drop out of school. This effect is especially true but not limited to student populations that historically evidence a higher risk for dropping out of school.