An Aeroecological Assessment of Aircraft Bird Strike Predictability Using Weather Radar and Citizen Science

Abstract

World-wide air traffic has increased at an average rate of 1.8% per year since the 1980s. With this increase in aviation, there has been a marked intensification of aircraft-wildlife collisions netting an estimate of nearly $1.2 billion * year-1 in damages globally. Airborne wildlife (bats and birds) poses deadly risks to commercial and military aircraft and have resulted in >1,264 bird-aircraft collisions since 1990. These figures emphasize the necessity of computer-based modeling to predict and analyze potential flight risk to mitigate losses of aircraft and human life. Here, we investigate a method of predicting flight susceptibility to avian wildlife strikes modeled on aerial bird abundance and ground abundance using NEXRAD weather radar and eBird citizen science data reports. These historical datasets were integrated with known aircraft strikes according to the Federal Aviation Administration to evaluate our “air-traffic hypothesis.” We predict that on historical strike days, both aerial and ground abundance is higher than on non-strike days. However, results suggest that while NEXRAD weather radar is applicable in determining current aerial bird abundances, those abundances are not necessarily indicative of inherent strike risk to aircraft. An eBird ground relative abundance index suggests that there is not a strong correlation between this relative abundance index and the probability of strikes occurring. This data integration demonstrates need for using and developing near-real-time technologies like bird-strike advisory systems, which use computer-based algorithms to both flight plan and track possible wildlife hazards while flights are en-route, instead of relying solely on historical data alone for flight planning and bird-strike avoidance.