Ratings agencies and governance.

Abstract

As recently as last year, the United States was facing a monumental decision in regards to economic policy: should the debt ceiling be raised? The answer itself, while important, was not the motivation behind this research, but the actors who influenced the answer were. Specifically, the sovereign credit rating agencies influenced the process by implying that if drastic steps were not taken, they would downgrade United States debt. In influencing a decision by the largest economic actor in the world, the ratings agencies showed that they possessed authority in the global economy. If they could influence United States policy, who else could they influence? Furthermore, what variables are factored into their rating? This research explores the impact of private governance, specifically ratings agencies, on seventeen developing states and attempts to explain variations in ratings over a span of six years (2004-2009) using Fitch's ratings service. The model accounted for 77% of variations in ratings. The resulting correlations showed that the Gini coefficient, the current account, and a variable called GDP volatility that refers to GDP growth and contraction, were significantly negatively correlated with variations in rating; and a globalization score was significantly positively correlated with variations in rating. These results imply that in developing states, increasing globalization, reducing income inequality, running surpluses, and maintaining small steady growth in GDP result in higher credit ratings, and that states attempting to develop should pursue policies that achieve those goals.--Abstract.