Sea Level Rise in Egypt's Nile River Delta: Policy Recommendations to Address Agricultural Decline and Infrastructural Damage

Abstract

In this thesis, I evaluate the effects of sea level rise on agriculture and infrastructure in Egypt’s Nile River Delta. In response to these effects, I propose policy recommendations to adapt to sea level rise and ultimately mitigate agricultural decline and infrastructural damage. Sea levels have steadily risen over the last 100 years, resulting in excess seawater and salt in the lower and middle regions of the delta. Because more than half of Egypt’s population lives and works in the Nile Delta, sea level rise is a growing and impending catastrophe for Egypt. Farmers in the delta are already battling excess salt, which kills their crops, stunts growth, and exacerbates food insecurity and vulnerability. Climate scientists predict that these effects will worsen substantially if policymakers do not take aggressive action. Infrastructure along the delta’s coast has already experienced ruin from floodwater, causing people to lose their homes, their livelihoods, and their stability. After examining these issues from various angles, I have proposed five policy recommendations, meant to be implemented in a hierarchical manner, from least to most difficult. Three feasible recommendations to address agricultural decline include 1) more efficient systems of water use, 2) government subsidies for shallow-root, water-efficient crop seeds, and 3) regulation of groundwater extraction. Two recommendations to address damaged infrastructure and the resulting displaced populations include 1) steel storm surge barriers, and 2) a mass, voluntary retreat. The mass voluntary retreat is a last resort, as it has historically been complex and has raised issues of ethicality.