| dc.description.abstract | Intense atmospheric vortices occur in dust devils, waterspouts, tornadoes, mesocyclones and tropical cyclones. Tangential wind models have been proposed that approximate the observed tangential wind profile of at atmospheric vortex for the purpose of data analysis and prediction. Data analysis is required to demonstrate in an objective way that a parameterized tangential wind model provides an acceptable desciption of the tangential wind profile of an atmospheric vortex and determine if the model can be used to make accurate predictions. Analysis of the residuals indicates that nonlinear least squares analysis is appropriate. The Wood-White 2 vortex model provides good approximations to the benchmark Davies-Jones data set in radial, tangential and vertical wind estimates. Using the methodology of Information Theory and Sensitivity Analysis, information content of the parameters of the Wood-White 2 vortex model show that both parameters are essential in estimation of the tangential wind profile. The variances in both parameters were large, but can be reduced by using random samples containing the statistical properties of the data. The Local Sensitivity Analysis method can be used without much loss of information which will be valuable in the analysis of models with a large number of parameters. Uncertainty in radial, tangential and vertical winds were examined and can be used effectively to predict these quantiies and their uncertainties. | |
