Analysis of course marks in first-year algebra as an index for forecasting academic success

Abstract

Scope and Method of Study: This study was made to provide evidence of a relationship between the grades made by students in the first-year algebra course and their total high-school grade averages to see if academic success may be determined by their success in first-year algebra.

One hundred seventy-three seniors from the graduating classes of 1958, 1959, 1960, and 1961 were selected at random and used in this study. The only qualifications were that they had taken at least one year of first-year algebra. Forecasts were made for the sophomore grade averages and the total grade averages with first-year algebra grade averages as the criterion. The actual grade averages of the seniors were compared with the forecasted grade averages at both grade levels.

Findings and Conclusions: An analysis of the first-year algebra grade averages showed that 49.13% made a grade average of B or above; that 77.65% of these seniors made a total grade average of B or above and 78.71% made a sophomore grade average of B or above; that these students who took three years or more of mathematics made a higher per cent for academic success than those students who took less mathematics.

Individual forecasting could be done with 73.68% of accuracy from their forecasted sophomore grade averages for those who had taken three years or more of mathematics while group forecasting could be done with a reasonably higher degree of accuracy in all groups.

It is concluded that there is evidence that a relationship does exist between the first-year algebra grade averages and the total grade averages which may serve as an index for forecasting academic success.