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Now showing items 11-14 of 14
A Two Part Study in the Evaluation of Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts from Convection-Allowing Models
(2017-12)
Previous studies examining convection-allowing models (CAMs), as well as NOAA/Hazardous Weather Testbed Spring Forecasting Experiments (SFEs) have typically emphasized “day 1” (12-36 h) forecast guidance. These studies ...
A Sub-daily Severe Weather Climatology and Its Implications for Forecasting
(2017-05)
While there has been an abundance of research dedicated to the seasonal climatology of severe weather, very little has been done to study hazardous weather probabilities on smaller scales. Using a similar process to the ...
Supercell Predictability: Exploring Ensemble Sensitivity to Initial Condition Spread
(2017-05-12)
The sensitivity of full-physics ensemble forecasts of supercells to initial condition (IC) uncertainty is investigated. The motivation for the study largely stems from the NOAA Warn-on-Forecast (WoF) program, where the ...
A Tale of Two Mesovortices: Analysis of a Simulated Severe MCS Observed By PECAN on 5-6 July 2015
(2017-07)
Understanding and forecasting nocturnal thunderstorms and their hazards remain elusive goals. To this end, an expansive array of fixed and mobile observing systems were deployed in the summer of 2015 for the Plains Elevated ...