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Low-level Stability Analysis of Observed Supercell Environments
(2022-08)
Lapse rates have long been used to quantify the stability of the environment and aid in the prediction of storms. Low level lapse rates (0-1 km and 0-3 km) specifically have become a tool in understanding the finer processes ...
Scale-dependent Inflation for Multiscale Ensemble based Data Assimilation
(2023-12-15)
The degree of the background ensemble deficiency, often manifested as ensemble underdispersion, can vary at different scales in the ensemble-based data assimilation. This study develops the new scale-dependent inflation ...
A Multi-Resolution Ensemble Hybrid 4DEnVar with Variable Ensemble Sizes to Improve Global and Tropical Cyclone Track Numerical Prediction
(2022-05)
One challenge associated with ensemble-based data assimilation (DA) is the quantitative estimation of the background error covariances. In the current global operational DA system, a reduced resolution background ensemble ...
Evaluation of the experimental warn-on-forecast system and WoF-hybrid 3DEnVar system on short-term forecasts for 2021 real-time cases
(2022-12-16)
Over the last few decades, it has become more important than ever to provide accurate forecasts for severe hazards that have become more common due to climate change effects. Over this time, several forecasting experiments ...
An Analysis of the Microphysical and Thermodynamic Properties of Elevated Convective Cells within Snowbands Associated with Winter Storms.
(2023-12-15)
In-situ and remote sensing observations of snowbands were obtained by probes on a cloudpenetrating NASA P-3 and a high-altitude NASA ER-2 aircraft, to identify and characterize elevated convective cells (CCs). Observations ...
Evaluating Boundary Layer Features in the CHEESEHEAD Campaign and Their Contribution to Convection Evolution During the 19-20 July 2019 Severe Weather Outbreak
(2022-08-04)
Interactions between the atmospheric boundary layer and convective storms provide an opportunity for research bridging the two meteorological fields. Despite this, there remains a pervasive sense within the meteorological ...
Constraint of Vegetation Photosynthesis and Respiration Model (VPRM) Parameter Uncertainty Using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) Technique
(2023-05-12)
Modeling the changes to the carbon cycle and their effects on the atmosphere is a key area of research for understanding climate change. The Vegetation Photosynthesis and Respiration Model (VPRM) is a light-use efficiency ...
Impacts of Extratropical Transition on Tropical Cyclone Tornado Occurrence
(2023-08-04)
Tornadoes that spawn from tropical cyclones (TCs) pose a threat to lives and property. Although nearly half of TCs in the Atlantic Ocean undergo extratropical transition, there has only been one study investigating how ...
THE PACIFIC DECADAL PRECESSION AND ITS RELATIONSHIP TO TROPICAL PACIFIC DECADAL VARIABILITY IN CMIP6 MODELS
(2020-07-30)
Persistent, multi-year shifts in atmospheric circulations and their associated influence on regional climates can have profound impacts on physical, biological, and socioeconomic systems. The Pacific Decadal Precession ...
Flow Dependent Evaluation and Training of Random Forest based Probabilistic Forecasts of Severe Weather Hazards
(2023-12-15)
There has been an increasing interest over the past ten years in the use of Machine Learning (ML) algorithms such as Random Forests (RF) in the context of severe weather prediction. RF-based methods have even been shown ...