Three-year forecast of hospital admission costs of AIDS patients in Oklahoma

Abstract

Scope and Method of Study: The sudden onset of the acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) in Oklahoma in January of 1983 has created some very serious problems for health care providers. The high costs related to the medical management of AIDS patients have resulted in significant financial burdens for a number of Oklahoma hospitals. In order to formulate a strategic plan for coping with future hospital admission costs associated with the increasing number of AIDS victims, a forecast relating the extent of the potential problem is necessary. The objective of this study is to provide that forecast by combining historical hospital admission costs for AIDS patients in Oklahoma with a computer forecast of expected new cases over the next three years. Eight hospitals, which managed 87 percent of the reported AIDS cases, provided admission-cost figures for 71 percent of the cumulative Oklahoma morbidity. The Interactive Financial Planning System (IFPS) was employed to derive anticipated case totals for each of the three calendar years.

Findings and Conclusions: Although the average Oklahoma AIDS patient survives only four months after diagnosis, the hospital admission charges total approximately $25,000 per patient. This is based on observed figures, which indicate an average of 35 hospital days at $708 per patient per day. The predictions for new AIDS diagnoses for 1986, 1987, and 1988 reached 44, 69, and 100 respectively. In combining these numbers with average cost figures, charges for hospital admissions are expected to reach $1.1 million in 1986, $1.7 million in 1987, and $2.5 million in 1988. This reflects a $5.3 million total for the next three years, in terms of hospital admissions only, for medically managing AIDS patients.