Application of Monte Carlo Techniques to the Determination of Groundwater Contamination Risk in Saturated Two-dimensional Aquifer Systems

Abstract

A Monte Carlo Simulation and uncertainty analysis was used to determine the risk of groundwater contamination in saturated two-dimensional aquifer systems. The effort was applied in two areas. The procedure for determination of groundwater contamination associated with the application of a pesticide is presented in Appendix A. The paper that follows details the analysis of uncertainty associated with the relatively new process, Underground Coal Gasification, for the production of synthetic fuels. Migration of organic contaminants was determined in terms of peak concentration and affected (contaminated) area. Natural controls of the groundwater quality , biological decay, retardance and dispersion, were included in the analysis. A generic analysis, applied to a wet site as well as a dry site, was completed. This was done to avoid limiting the applicability of the results, which would come from a site specific approach