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Date

2013-12-02

Journal Title

Journal ISSN

Volume Title

Publisher

PLos One
Creative Commons
Except where otherwise noted, this item's license is described as Attribution 3.0 United States

Highly pathogenic influenza A/H5N1 has persistently but sporadically caused human illness and death since 1997. Yet it is still unclear how this pathogen is able to persist globally. While wild birds seem to be a genetic reservoir for influenza A, they do not seem to be the main source of human illness. Here, we highlight the role that domestic poultry may play in maintaining A/H5N1 globally, using theoretical models of spatial population structure in poultry populations. We find that a metapopulation of moderately sized poultry flocks can sustain the pathogen in a finite poultry population for over two years. Our results suggest that it is possible that moderately intensive backyard farms could sustain the pathogen indefinitely in real systems. This fits a pattern that has been observed from many empirical systems. Rather than just employing standard culling procedures to control the disease, our model suggests ways that poultry production systems may be modified.

Description

Thanks to K. Sturm-Ramirez, C. Jessup, J. Rosenthal and the staff of EcoHealth Alliance for feedback. Disclaimer: The contents are the responsibility of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of USAID or the United States Government.
Conceived and designed the experiments: PRH TF RH DZ CSA AG MJM XX TB PD. Performed the experiments: PRH. Analyzed the data: PRH. Contributed reagents/materials/analysis tools: PRH TF RH DZ CSA AG MJM XX TB JHJ PD. Wrote the paper: PRH TF RH DZ CSA AG MJM XX TB JHJ PD.

Keywords

PLOS, Public Library of Science, Open Access, Open-Access, Science, Medicine, Biology, Research, Peer-review, Inclusive, Interdisciplinary, Ante-disciplinary, Physics, Chemistry, Engineering

Citation

Hosseini PR, Fuller T, Harrigan R, Zhao D, Arriola CS, et al. (2013) Metapopulation Dynamics Enable Persistence of Influenza A, Including A/H5N1, in Poultry. PLoS ONE 8(12): e80091. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0080091

Related file

http://www.plosone.org/article/info%3Adoi%2F10.1371%2Fjournal.pone.0080091

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