Ronald Keith Gaddie2016-01-142016-03-302016-01-142016-03-301997-09-01Gaddie, R. K. (1997). Congressional Seat Swings: Revisiting Exposure in House Elections. Political Research Quarterly, 50(3), 699-710. doi: 10.1177/106591299705000310http://hdl.handle.net/11244/25273Oppenheimer, Stimson, and Waterman's exposure thesis of partisan change contends that shifts in the partisan composition of Congress are related to the long-term stability of the electoral system. Applying their exposure model to elections from 1962-1994 produces seat change estimates that generally follow the actual data pattern, but these estimates produce large predictive errors. When the exposure model is reestimated using data from 1962-1994, exposure is not significantly related to partisan seat swings. This article advances a seat change model that relies on an alter nate measure of exposure: the net exposure of the president's party in open seats. Open-seat exposure is significantly related to the partisan seat swing, and substantially improves on the economic evaluation/surge and-decline/ exposure model of seat change. In an era of high incumbent security and strategic retirement from Congress, the balance of open seats is a better indicator of partisan vulnerability, and better reflects the nature of partisan exposure.en-USAttribution 3.0 United StatesResearch Article10.1177/106591299705000310false